Fivethirtyeight recently launched their election forecast. What I find interesting is that the model expects the polls to either drift toward President Biden, or that the polls are underestimating President Biden by a few percentage points.
@tinadrin I think the strategic play is for President Biden to stay in the race, for a few reasons:
1) He's still polling ahead of most alternative Democrats.
2) To find a good alternative, Democrats would have to fully canvas their constituents (such as via a primary.) When only the most vocal Democrats vote, they tend to select someone who wouldn't fare well in the general election (such as Senator Sanders or Secretary Buttigieg).
3) The way old age tends to manifest, you have your good days and your bad days. The debate was very much one of his bad days. Presumably, in subsequent debates and TV appearances, he won't look nearly so bad.
Here's some analysis that, surprisingly, hasn't been making it into the main discourse.
Let's look at the states where polling averages are between Trump +4 and Biden +4, according to Economist.com:
Nevada: Trump +3, 6 electoral votes.
Minnesota: Biden +1, 10 electoral votes.
Wisconsin: Trump +3, 10 electoral votes.
Michigan: Trump +2, 15 electoral votes.
Pennsylvania: Trump +4, 19 electoral votes.
Virginia: Biden + 3, 13 electoral votes.
Maine at large: Biden + 3, 2 electoral votes.
New Hampshire: Biden + 1, 4 electoral votes.
Now, let's consider all states outside the ±4 range to be likely for the leading candidate:
For President Biden: Hawaii, California, Oregon, Washington, New Mexico, Colorado, Nebraska's 2nd district, Illinois, Maryland, Delaware, DC, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, Maine's 1st district. Total, 197 electoral votes.
For President Trump: Alaska, Arizona, Montana, Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska at large, Nebraska 1st and 3rd districts, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Missouri, Iowa, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, Indiana, Ohio, West Virginia, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Maine's 2nd district. Total, 262 electoral votes.
Simplest scenarios for a Biden victory:
1) Biden wins all the battleground states listed above, except Nevada: In this case, President Biden wins reelection, 270-268, a hair's-breadth margin.
2) Biden also wins Nevada, and may lose Maine at large and/or New Hampshire: In these cases, President Biden wins reelection with anywhere from a 270-268 margin to a 276-262 margin.
Simplest case for a Trump victory:
• Win one or more of the "big five" battleground states of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and/or Virginia. In this case, President Trump wins reelection, by a margin of at least 272-266.
Realistically, President Biden has to fill the proverbial inside straight here. Unless he wins in a state where he's currently trailing by 5 points or more, he has to sweep all of the "big five" AND win either Nevada or both New Hampshire and Maine at large. This is doable, but not likely.
I don't think I've heard anyone list off Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Virginia as the "big five".
@AspieAlly613 thank you, that's helpful to see the analysis. It seems it is going to be a close race.
I keep seeing constantly news pop ups about Biden making numerous errors and gaffs, such as apparently calling Zelensky "President Putin", and calling Kamala Harris "VP Trump".
I follow US election night, at the end of the year, I always do every presidential election, but trying to keep up with all the goings on, especially with other elections in the UK and key European states, and with some personal stuff ongoing, it's just hard to keep up with everything.
It helps to have the analysis above.
@tinadrin By British standards, yes, this election will be close. However, American presidential elections are consistently close as the parties will change their platforms as ideas become more/less popular. (As a recent example, the Republican party has changed its stance on same-sex marriage over the past 10 years.)
Right now, if the race shifts toward President Trump over the next few months, or even if it remains as it is, President Trump will have a significant statistical advantage. President Biden would have to go 5-for-5 in close races.
@tinadrin At the top line, it doesn't shift the race in one direction or another, but adds a lot more uncertainty. Ever since President Biden's poor debate performance, he and Vice President Biden have had similar polling numbers.
The opportunity that this grants the Democrats is the opportunity to be more strategic in their choice of a Vice Presidential candidate. The two leading names are Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona and Governor Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania. I feel like Governor Shapiro would be the more strategic choice. Arizona isn't particularly similar to other states, and while that's a good thing for Arizona (they elected Senators John McCain and Kyrsten Sinema, for example) this means that just because Senator Kelly won his election in Arizona, that wouldn't necessarily translate to increased support in the Rust Belt states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, or the demographically similar Minnesota. Governor Shapiro, on the other hand, won his race by 15 percentage points in a year where Republicans outperformed Democrats overall by 3 percentage points.
