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UK General Election, 2024

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Tinadrin
(@tinadrin)
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Next month, on July 4th, is the upcoming general election in the United Kingdom. After 14 years of Conservative control, we will finally get them out (that is pretty much guaranteed, we're just waiting to see by how much they are pounded). Unfortunately, I don't see Labour as much better, but despite having several different political parties at the national level, it's been a seesaw between Conservative and Labour for many decades.

I'll be voting for the Liberal Democrats here (for the first time ever), as I won't vote for either of the "main two", and the Liberal Democrats are simply far more likely than the Greens in my constituency to get rid of the Conservative MP.

There's considerable infighting between the right wing parties on the national level, generally Conservatives and Reform UK, but both are despicable parties full of hatred. There are a fair few in both parties that want some sort of merger or pact, whilst others are against it. I truly hope that they don't merge, as the thought of the Reform UK leader ever gaining power terrifies me.


   
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AspieAlly613
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While the rest of the EU is seeing a rise in far-right populism, the UK seems to be moving more toward the center-left (pardon the American spelling).

 

Suddenly, Brexit doesn't seem like such a bad idea after all.


   
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Tinadrin
(@tinadrin)
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It is, somewhat complicated. Whilst there is a considerable shift towards Labour, Labour has shifted right (still centre-left, but the rightward trend is growing currently), but there is also the right wing Reform UK, that are growing in support, despite having a lot of really not-good candidates. The leader is also a major fan of Donald Trump, and almost refused to lead the party in order to help secure electoral victory for Trump this year instead. He changed his mind about that (just the not leading, he still wants to help Trump win). In any case, Labour are pretty secured victory.

I am at least glad that the European far-right trend hasn't gained as much of a foothold here, and likely 14 years of terrible Conservative power has helped to soften such a trend in the UK.

And there are still the centre/centre-left and left parties that have made considerable gains from Conservative losses.

At the moment, it seems that it is going to be a massive landslide to Labour, and the right wing (Conservative and Reform) are fighting it out for the support of that political grouping, which will see further losses to the Conservative.

I am still very adamant about maintaining a close relationship with Europe (I was anti-Brexit, but accept the referendum), as I believe that the way to secure a better future for everyone is by countries and people working together.


   
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AspieAlly613
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Does this Reform UK group have policies as bad as those of Marine Le Pen, Geert Wilders, or whoever is in charge of AfD?


   
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Tinadrin
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The leader of Reform UK was the only "significant" British politician to publicly support Marine Le Pen.

The Party candidates standing for the upcoming general election include among them Covid-deniers, racists, Islampohobes, and various conspiracy theorists (and that is just stuff that has been publicly stated at various points by those candidates).

I also knew that at least one had declared AH (of WW2) to be "brilliant", and several others support that position, but the one who actually made that declaration is apparently the one who is standing locally in my constituency. I didn't think it could have gotten worse than the MP we've had the last 19 years, but apparently the universe is doing it's best to prove me wrong.


   
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AspieAlly613
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@tinadrin Yowch!  Thank goodness they only manages a few seats!


   
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AspieAlly613
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I did some analysis and noticed something interesting.  The general left/right balance hasn't shifted much (only about 5 or 6 percentage points) but with the Tories losing some of their support to Reform UK, they couldn't win the plurality in as many districts.  Ironically, it seems Reform UK's existence is what led to Labor's rise to power.


   
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Tinadrin
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Yeah, I definitely agree. I don't really understand the pull that Nigel Farage seems to have, I see him called "the UK's most influential politician of the 21st century" by the BBC recently, and he seems to have garnered a strong level of support, taking second place in almost 100 constituencies across the country. I hope it is a short-lived thing, I very much dislike the Conservatives (and Labour nowadays), but either is preferrable to Nigel Farage and his party.

There's already some dissent among the Reform UK ranks, but given it is a new party (his third that I know of), it likely takes time for things to settle. But Farage or Reform UK in a position of power would be very bad for the UK, so I really hope that maybe if Labour hold out into the next election in five years for a decade stint, then perhaps the political landscape here will be different.

There's a lot of discontent in the Conservative, Labour, and Reform UK, and many here are voting against parties rather than in support of a party.

I'm glad to say the Reform UK candidate in my constituency did not succeed, and in fact we got rid of the Conservative candidate too.


   
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